The market for cattle and cattle trading is always dynamic. But the extremes of 2020 are absolutely unprecedented. Periods of running and standing still came and went at top speed and peak prices dropped within a few months to dramatically low levels. Responding to an unpredictable market pushed us to the limit.

During the first four months of 2020, trade in piglets was satisfactory and the market was predictable. Prices for piglets and meat products reached historically high levels. A main factor was the large demand for pork from Asia, particularly China. African swine fever caused production in the world's biggest pork country to slump dramatically. But the Chinese pig stocks are recovering at an amazing rate; this reduced the demand for pork on the global market as the year went on.

The spread of COVID-19 infections among employees in pig slaughterhouses and meat processing plants suddenly slowed down the market which had run smoothly until the month of May. China withdrew export certificates from meat processors in affected locations in the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. Within a very short time, the market came under a great deal of pressure. The market for fattening pigs slowed down, the piglet market slowed down and prices suffered a decline.

Complicating factor
An additional complicating factor was the outbreak of African swine fever in Germany last September. It was only to be expected that this contagious swine disease would cross the border from Poland at some time. But it could not have happened at a worse time. September is traditionally a slow month for the pig market, but having the corona problems at the same time made everything even more difficult. In addition, German slaughterhouses had to sell their products on the European market. This put more pressure on prices and the trading lines were far from normal. The market was no longer predictable. In some weeks, business stagnated and in other weeks every truck was needed to transport the animals to their destination. An example of market disruption is the export flow of fattening pigs. Livestock was transported from the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany to Spanish slaughterhouses right to the end of 2020. In a normal year, that would only happen for a couple of weeks during the tourist season.

Looking ahead at the pig market
At the end of 2020, the market calmed down allowing the dramatically low piglet prices to recover a little. That is a positive sign for the recovery of the piglet market. In the Netherlands, farmers are struggling with a further decline in pig stocks. The effects of the subsidy scheme for the remediation of pig farms are visible in a structurally lower supply of piglets and fattening pigs. In Germany, the supply of piglets will decline further because some sow farmers stopped trading in 2020 and others are expected to follow.

Export market for heifers
The year 2020 can go down in history as a very poor year for the export of heifers from the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. COVID-19 affected trade with third countries such as Russia, Uzbekistan, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Building projects for dairy farms faced lengthy delays because of this. It led to an export dip of almost three months. Heifer exports picked up again in the autumn. Selection of heifers had to take place online because the COVID-19 regulations prohibited entry to persons from third countries. There are a few more nice projects in the pipeline for 2021. The first heifers were released from quarantine in January. Heifer export is expected to be more stable and consistent than it was in 2020. We are still being faced with challenges, such as responding to social and political demands regarding long-distance transport of livestock. We need to be creative if we want to maintain the financially interesting heifer market.